The prime minister is also attempting to join the EU’s €90bn loan for Ukraine, which the Conservatives welcomed
More in Common has published its final MRP poll for the Welsh Senedd election. It suggests that Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are on course to come equal first in terms of numbers of seats, and that Labour is doing significantly worse than when More in Common last ran an MRP poll in April. More in Common says:
The model suggests Labour could fall into third place with just 14 seats [down from 24, as the last More in Common MRP projected]. In an echo of the Caerphilly byelection it seems that as the election approaches Labour’s voter share is being squeezed, particularly by Plaid, with progressives rallying behind [Rhun] ap Iorwerth’s party as the best vehicle to stop Reform.
The Conservatives would end up with 9 seats (their position stabilising since early April), and the Green party would end up with 5 – their first ever seats in the Senedd.
To get a majority in the Senedd, you need 49 seats. As you can see [the figures in the chart – see below], under these projections, the path to 49 seats is tricky for any party. Reform and the Tories together have 43 seats, so would be six short of a majority. Given that no other party would work with them, this makes it very hard for them to form the next government.
Plaid and Labour combined are actually one seat short of a majority while Plaid and the Greens together are 10 seats short.
Continue reading...Source: Guardian - World News
